We tested our own claim. Part of it broke. 26 August 2026
We ran the experiment on ourselves first, and it told us we were measuring the right thing the wrong way.
The mechanism is not in question and never was. ITU‑T G.107 has folded late
arrivals into effective loss since 2015; RFC 3611 and RFC 7002 define discard metrics
separately from network loss; G.1072 and P.1203 treat a frame past its deadline as lost.
A packet that arrives too late really is gone, and the standards have said so for years.
We built a game‑client simulation whose only measure of harm is how far, in metres, the
client drew an opponent from where they actually were. Measured frame by frame, the mechanism
is close to deterministic: the correlation between how stale the client’s information was
and how wrong its picture was came out at 0.95, and the damage climbs from a
millimetre at 25 ms of staleness to almost two metres past 200 ms.
Late packets wreck netcode, and the harm scales with exactly how late.
What broke was our instrument, not the idea. A miss percentage is a count:
it scores a packet 2 ms past the tick the same as one 400 ms past it, and throws
away the magnitude that does the damage. Pre‑registered and run three times, that
percentage lost to plain packet loss every time. It is the worst‑performing form of the
metric we have measured.
What won, confirmed on a fresh seed, is the figure this page already puts beside the two
grids above: the longest continuous hole, in milliseconds. How long you went
without current information, whether the packets were late or never turned up at all. It beat
conventional loss by a clear margin on both client models we tried, and it beat our own
headline percentage by a mile. So the percentage has come off the front of this page
and the hole length has gone on it. Scroll back up; that is what the headline figure
is now. We have not commissioned the human study; the winning number has changed twice this
week and should settle first.
Read the study and the data
The preregistrations
The preregistrations, the
results and the raw JSON
are published whether they suit us or not. Provenance marking used throughout the product: a figure is either
checked against the primary document, asserted by research we have not independently verified,
or nobody has established it. A number with no mark is a design parameter we chose, not a
finding. The figures elsewhere on this page come from a seeded sample session and not from a
real connection.